Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Sen. Raffy Tulfo narrowly led a hypothetical 2028 presidential-vice presidential matchup, but their three-point advantage over Vice President Sara Duterte and Sen. Imee Marcos is statistically insignificant, according to an OCTA Research survey.

The survey showed 45% of adult Filipinos preferring the Robredo-Tulfo tandem, compared with 42% for Duterte-Marcos. Another 8% said they would vote for neither tandem, 4% were undecided and 1% refused to answer.

OCTA Research described the result as a statistical toss-up, noting that the margin of error for the head-to-head comparison is wider than the margin of error for either tandem's individual percentage.

The latest figures also mark a shift from previous rounds of the survey. Duterte-Marcos had led the same matchup by about 15 to 25 percentage points in earlier rounds, before Robredo-Tulfo moved to an apparent four-point lead in the first quarter of 2026.

By major area, Robredo-Tulfo led in Balance Luzon with 61% and the National Capital Region with 56%. The two tandems were tied at 45% each in the Visayas, while Duterte-Marcos dominated Mindanao with 90%.

Robredo-Tulfo posted its strongest support in MIMAROPA at 84%, followed by the Bicol Region and Central Luzon at 71% each, Ilocos Region at 69%, Western Visayas at 68% and Negros Island Region at 61%.

Duterte-Marcos, meanwhile, recorded its highest support in Caraga at 97%, Northern Mindanao at 92%, Davao Region at 91%, BARMM and Soccsksargen at 88% each, Zamboanga Peninsula at 87% and Central Visayas at 82%.

By socioeconomic class, Robredo-Tulfo led among Class ABC, 41% to 37%, and Class D, 48% to 41%. Duterte-Marcos was ahead among Class E respondents, 53% to 33%.

OCTA Research conducted the survey from July 4 to 11, 2026.