Consumers should brace for a possible sharp increase in rice prices by the next harvest season in September, as the Department of Agriculture (DA) warns of inflationary pressures driven by the global oil crisis and rising farm input costs.

During a Senate PROTECT Committee hearing, Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. gave an early warning that rice prices could climb significantly if current farming practices continue and farmers fail to shift to alternative inputs.

“If we do traditional practices, na pareho pa rin yung urea gagamitin, hindi tayo gagamit ng alternative, or yung farmers natin will not adopt the alternative fertilizers na Sinasuggest ng DA, it can be. The computation as of yesterday is 62 pesos. Per kilo,” Laurel said.

He noted that rice prices have already been rising in recent months. “Average before the war was 42. Ngayon siguro nasa mga 50 pesos,” he added, referring to the Middle East conflict’s impact on global fuel and commodity markets.

According to the DA, the increase is largely driven by the rising cost of agricultural inputs, particularly fertilizer. Urea fertilizer, for instance, has reportedly surged from around ₱1,600 per sack to as high as ₱3,000, significantly increasing production costs for farmers.

Laurel also pointed out that many farmers remain hesitant to shift to organic or alternative fertilizers, which the DA has been promoting to help stabilize production costs.

To mitigate the potential price spike, the DA is preparing intervention measures, including a proposed “rice blend” strategy that mixes imported and local rice supplies at a ratio of 30 percent imported and 70 percent local. The agency is also studying a “corn blend” option, which would mix rice with corn to produce a more affordable staple alternative.

The DA said these measures aim to cushion consumers from further price shocks while balancing supply pressures ahead of the next harvest cycle.