Philippine nuclear energy advocate and Pangasinan 2nd District Rep. Mark Cojuangco on Saturday raised concerns over the country’s reliance on renewable energy targets, saying current policy assumptions on wind and solar power may be “impossible” to achieve at scale.

In an interview on DZRH’s Special on Saturday (SOS), Cojuangco, who chairs the House Committee on Nuclear Energy, said public understanding of renewable energy is often “confused,” particularly when comparing traditional sources such as hydro and geothermal with newer technologies like wind and solar.

“Kapag sinasabi kasing renewable, nacoconfuse ang tao kasi ang traditional renewable is hydro tsaka geothermal. Yung wind and solar nasa mga 1-2% lang. Ang liit nyan.”

He noted that expansion in geothermal and hydroelectric power remains possible but is ultimately limited by natural resource availability and site development.

“Kanya-kanyang paniwala yan eh. Hanggang sa kakayahan ng ating resources ay pwedeng lumaki pa ang geothermal at hydro. Naghahanap yan ng site ng dam at naghahanap yan ng site ng geothermal fields na ide-develop.”

When asked about the growth potential of renewables over the next 14 years, including wind and solar, Cojuangco said the outlook depends on policy direction but warned against overreliance on intermittent energy sources.

Referring to the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Philippine Energy Plan (PEP) target of 50 percent renewable share in delivered electricity by 2040, he said: “For me imposible yun, maaari pang pumayag ako na 50% nominal capacity.”

He explained that installed capacity does not translate directly into actual electricity generation due to variability in output.

“Solar has a capacity factor of about 15 percent. If you say 100 megawatts, it only produces at that level about 15 percent of the time,” he said. “There’s night, there are clouds, and during monsoon season for six months of the year, solar output is weak.”

He added that wind power, while more efficient than solar, is also intermittent.

“Ang wind naman, 40% ang capacity factor. Meaning kung minsan wala talagang wind. As in 0, so walang lalabas dyan.”

Given these limitations, he said the Philippines would still need to rely on other energy sources such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants, which he described as dependent on imported fuel and potentially more expensive than coal.

“Kailangan mapipilitan ang Pilipinas na kailangan kapag doon umasa na mag-construct ng LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) plants kasi magiging imported yan, mas mahal pa yan sa coal.”

Cojuangco also pointed to global competition for LNG supply, citing major energy-importing countries.

“Ang nakikipag-agawan dyan ay mga mayayaman na bansa like Europe, China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, India. Case in point, ang China bumili ng 20 years ng buong supply ng, if I’m not mistaken, Oman or one of those countries sa Middle East.”

He warned that such large-scale procurement reduces available supply for smaller importing nations like the Philippines.

“In other words, pinakyaw na nila lahat for the next 20 years, eh paano pa tayo makikipagkumpitensya diyan?”

Cojuangco added that while countries such as Japan and South Korea have the capability to build energy infrastructure, the Philippines does not yet have similar capacity at scale.

As global developments, including geopolitical tensions in energy-producing regions such as the Middle East, continue to reopen discussions on energy security and fuel dependence, Cojuangco said the Philippines must prioritize energy adequacy.

The lawmaker further noted that electricity demand is expected to rise sharply in the coming decades, reinforcing the need for long-term and scalable power solutions amid supply constraints and competing global demand for fuel resources.