The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said up to two tropical cyclones may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this May, as the country transitions further into the early phase of the rainy season.
In its May 1 public weather forecast, PAGASA Weather Specialist Obet Badrina said one to two storms are expected to develop or enter PAR within the month, although the likelihood of cyclone formation remains relatively low in the immediate term.
“Posible po na isa o dalawang bagyo ang maaaring mabuo o pumasok sa loob ng PAR ngayong buwan ng Mayo,” Badrina said, adding that the next cyclone names in the list are Caloy and Domeng.
Forecast data indicate that any developing systems are likely to originate over the western Pacific and may track toward Eastern Visayas and parts of Luzon, with some systems expected to recurve toward Japan rather than make landfall.
PAGASA’s climatological analysis also shows that May cyclones typically follow northeastward paths or traverse the central Philippines before shifting direction.
Despite the projection, PAGASA emphasized that no low-pressure area is currently being monitored inside or outside PAR, making the chance of cyclone formation over the weekend low. Easterlies—or warm winds coming from the Pacific—continue to dominate the country’s weather pattern.
Meanwhile, much of Luzon is expected to experience generally fair but hot weather, with temperatures reaching up to 37°C in some areas. However, localized thunderstorms remain possible, particularly in the afternoon and evening.
Cloudy skies with scattered rain showers are forecast over Palawan, Visayas, and parts of Mindanao due to the easterlies, with a higher likelihood of rainfall persisting into the weekend. No gale warnings have been raised, and coastal waters are expected to remain slight to moderate, although sudden thunderstorms may still cause rough conditions.
PAGASA advised the public to stay updated through official advisories, especially as thunderstorm activity is expected to increase in the coming weeks.
