The state weather bureau said the current El Niño, which will peak before the end of 2026, is actually not only a “very Strong El Niño” or a Super El Niño, but a “very, very strong” one.
Speaking to DZRH in an interview on Dos Por Dos, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Climate Monitoring Division Chief Ana Liza Solis said this El Niño is an unprecedented one, explaining that the oceans surrounding the Philippine archipelago are at a higher temperature than it has been in the past.
“Ang nagiging unprecedented dito ay ‘yung more than two degrees na ngayon ay mga 2.4 (degrees), at ‘yung doon sa dulo po, sa South America, ‘yung more than four degrees ‘yung kanyang pag-init. So ‘yun po ‘yung unusual,” she said, adding that the temperature increase has reached up to 300 meters down the sub-surface of the oceans.
“Nangyayari ‘yung ‘Very Strong El Niño,’ pero ito ‘yung ‘Very, Very Strong El Niño’... Kung ang ‘Very Strong El Niño’ ay ‘Super (El Niño), dapat ‘Mega El Niño’ ang tama,” she continued.
Solis said that the “lag effect” will push the El Niño’s peak by 2-3 months. The worst of the drought is expected to be felt before 2026 concludes and may stretch out to the first quarter to initial half of 2027, although she said that the impacts will not be evenly or uniformly experienced.
“Mayro’n po ‘yang lag effect. So mayro’ng 2-3 months. So kung sinasabi po natin at ng climate scientists around the world na magpe-peak ito nung tinatawag na Very Strong before end of 2026. So ‘yung impact po nito sa atin na matindi is ‘yung first quarter o first half ng 2027,” she told the anchors.
As of October 19, PAGASA’s last assessment, nine provinces have been experiencing meteorological or severe drought. In addition, it logged 30 dry spells, and 14 areas in dry condition. Around 53 provinces have been affected so far, Solis said.
These include Albay, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Leyte, Negros Oriental, Samar, Siquijor, and Misamis Oriental.
These nine provinces have been experiencing a rainfall reduction of over 61 percent in the last three months, she said, or up to 60 percent in declining rainfall compared to normal for five months straight.
“Ito po ‘yung mayro’ng more than 61 percent reduction po doon sa kanyang ulan for three consecutive months… Or limang buwan na sunod-sunod na up to 60 percent ‘yung reduction na po doon sa normal or ‘yung usual na rainfall nilang nararanasan,” she said.
While colder weather conditions brought in by the Northeast Monsoon or “Amihan” may cause temporary relief, Solis said preparation for the peak of El Niño remains crucial.
The climate monitoring chief emphasized the importance of saving water to mitigate the effects of the anticipated drought, particularly in dams and underground water reservoirs.
