Fuel prices in the Philippines are unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels near 55 pesos per liter, even with recent rollbacks, as global oil markets remain structurally higher and highly volatile, according to the Department of Energy (DOE).

In an interview with DZRH’s Dos Por Dos, Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said current price movements reflect short-term fluctuations rather than a sustained downward trend that would bring fuel costs back to earlier lows. She noted that diesel, which once ranged between 55 and 65 pesos per liter before global disruptions, is now consistently trading around 75 to 76 pesos.

“Hindi siya babalik kung paano dati kasi may damage pa yan sa Middle East. Yung ports nila, lahat. Pati yung mga oil facilities nila,” she said, pointing to continued instability in global supply conditions and the lingering effects of geopolitical tensions affecting oil-producing regions.

Recent DOE-announced rollbacks, which exceeded earlier industry estimates, were described by the agency as adjustments based on a computed baseline rather than a shift in long-term pricing trends.

Garin said it uses a five-day averaging system to determine weekly price movements, allowing it to respond to short-term fluctuations while maintaining consistency in computation across oil companies.

“So average yung five days pero one out of five days medyo konti pa lang yan. Hopefully, siguro mga few days pa makikita natin kung tataas man o bababa next week.”

The Energy secretary also emphasized that even during rollback periods, oil firms continue to operate under the replacement cost model, meaning they adjust prices based on current global acquisition costs rather than historical purchase prices.

“So ngayon, rollback siya. Pwede kang sumobra sa rollback. Pero pag increase, magseset din kami ng maximum. Kasi sinusunod din namin yung practice nila na replacement cost.”

Garin said the agency will continue monitoring global oil developments daily, particularly geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which remain a key driver of price volatility.

Officials further cautioned that while some short-term easing is possible, future movements remain uncertain and dependent on international events beyond the country’s control.

“Hindi naman depende sa mga Pilipino yan. Depende yan kung anong gagawin ni Trump doon.”