The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has officially confirmed the presence of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, raising concerns over potential shifts in rainfall patterns across the country.
In an advisory issued on June 9, PAGASA said the observed relative sea surface temperature anomaly reached the +0.5°C threshold in May 2026, meeting the criteria for El Niño conditions. Climate models further indicate an over 80% probability that the phenomenon will develop into a full-fledged El Niño event, which may persist until early 2027.
El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, often resulting in reduced rainfall in many parts of the Philippines.
PAGASA warned that the conditions may increase the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, raising the risk of dry spells and drought in vulnerable areas. However, the agency noted that above-normal rainfall may still occur in western sections of the country, particularly during the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) season, especially when enhanced by tropical cyclone activity.
Authorities emphasized the need for preparedness measures, especially in areas prone to flooding during heavy rains and those at risk of drought conditions.
PAGASA said it will continue to closely monitor the evolving El Niño conditions and coordinate with government agencies to mitigate potential impacts on agriculture, water resources, and disaster risk management nationwide.
