A hypothetical 2028 tandem of Vice President Sara Duterte and Sen. Robin Padilla leads a pairing against former Vice President Leni Robredo and Sen. Bam Aquino by 12 percentage points, according to the latest Tugon ng Masa survey by OCTA Research.

The Duterte-Padilla tandem registered 48% nationwide, compared with 36% for the Robredo-Aquino tandem. Another 16% of respondents remained undecided.

OCTA Research said the 12-point difference is the narrowest gap recorded between the two hypothetical tandems to date. In previous commissioned surveys conducted in 2025, the gap ranged from about 20 to 25 percentage points.

The latest findings came from OCTA Research's second-quarter 2026 Tugon ng Masa survey, described by the polling firm as an independent, non-partisan and non-commissioned nationwide poll.

Fieldwork was conducted from July 4 to 11 through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 male and female probability respondents aged 18 and above.

The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level nationwide. Subnational estimates for Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao have a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points.

OCTA described the latest result as showing a narrowing gap between the two hypothetical tandems ahead of the 2028 elections. The survey measures preferences for hypothetical pairings and does not constitute an election result or forecast.