Vice President Sara Duterte remains ahead of Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup for the 2028 presidential election, although her lead has narrowed, according to OCTA Research's latest Tugon ng Masa survey.
The non-commissioned survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews from July 4 to 11, with 1,200 adult respondents nationwide, and asked them: "Kung ang eleksyon ng Mayo 2028 ay isasagawa ngayon, sino ang inyong iboboto para sa pagka-Presidente?"
The second quarter 2026 pre-election voter preference survey showed that 43 percent of adult Filipinos would vote for Duterte if the presidential election were held during the survey period, while 34 percent said they would choose Robredo.
Duterte’s lead over Robredo stood at nine percentage points, down from the 11-point advantage she recorded in OCTA Research’s previous survey during the first quarter of 2026.
Meanwhile, 22 percent of respondents said they were undecided or would choose neither candidate, while 1 percent declined to answer.
The National Capital Region (NCR) emerged as the most competitive battleground in the hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup between Duterte and Robredo.
The survey showed Duterte and Robredo statistically tied in Metro Manila, both receiving 34 percent support. Nearly one in three voters in the region remained undecided, indicating a highly competitive race.
Regionally, Duterte posted her strongest support in Mindanao, where she received 76 percent, followed by the Visayas with 51 percent. She also led among respondents in Class E with 51 percent and Class D with 43 percent.
Robredo, meanwhile, performed best in Balance Luzon, where she obtained 51 percent. She also registered 36 percent support among respondents in Class D.
Duterte has already announced her intention to run for president in the 2028 national elections. Robredo, meanwhile, has maintained that her priority remains serving as mayor of Naga City following her victory in the 2025 local elections, and has yet to announce any plans to seek the presidency.
