Notes:

• Cora Guidote, former head of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Investor Relations Office

• “May sakit na ang Pilipinas, ang ekonomiya natin kasi hindi na maganda ‘yung takbo niya ngayon,”

• She said that in the fourth quarter of last year, the economy only grew by 3 percent, when, normally, the fourth quarter grows at a higher rate due to the holidays

• “The fact na 3 percent lang ‘yung tinaas niya, ibig sabihin, medyo mahina na talaga ‘yung mga pillars ng growth niya ‘no, lalo na ‘yung mga investments tsaka ‘yung government spending. So ‘yung tumataguyod nalang talaga sa growth na iyon na nakikita ko ay ‘yung OFW remittances,”

• “Ibig sabihin ng Business Confidence Index na ‘yan, mas marami ang hindi maganda or pessimistic sa economy natin kaysa doon sa mga optimistic. Kaya ngayon, naging -24 and supposedly that’s the lowest in 25 years,”

• “Since 1985, 40 years ago, I’ve already been dealing with foreign investors at that time, kasi ‘yung trabaho ko noon, international stockbroking. Gumagawa na ako ng research analysis. Noong time na iyon, hanggang ngayon, ngayon ko lang talaga na-experience sa pakikipag-halubilo ko sa mga foreign investors… may rason sila para umiwas muna sa Pilipinas, kasi napakaraming factors,”

• “Ang pinakamalaking factor na diyan, ‘yung level of corruption ngayon, napaka-talamak talaga, tsaka widespread. From top to bottom, hanggang mga barangay level na makakarinig ka talaga ng mga kuwento mismo doon sa mga tao na talagang talamak talaga ang corruption,”

• “Pangalawa, political instability. Imbes na asikasuhin ang krisis sa langis, puro impeachment ang naririnig natin, lalo na sa Kongreso. So hindi naka-focus doon sa problema ng mga tao ‘yung attention ng karamihan sa ating pamahalaan,”

• “Ikatlo, walang accountability. Ang dami nang hearings na ginawa tungkol dito sa mga ghost projects, hanggang ngayon, walang napapanagot. Kung ako, investor, pupunta nalang ako sa ibang bansa bago ako pumunta sa Pilipinas, kasi parang ang taas ng political risk tsaka ng economic risk dito sa bansa natin,”

• “Ikaapat, ‘yung inflation. Runaway ang inflation natin ngayon kasi hindi nakontrol ng pamahalaan natin ‘yung pagtaas ng presyo ng gasolina. Kung ikukumpara mo ‘yung diesel natin kaysa sa diesel sa ibang bansa, ang laki ng tinaas ng presyo dito kaysa sa ibang bansa,”

• She said that if not for OFW remittances, we would be in recession, adding that the economy weakened even before the oil crisis

• “Ang oil crisis, nangyari ‘yan, Marso na. From then, hanggang February, talagang domestic factors mostly ang nag-affect. ‘Yung sa tariffs, maliit na bagay ‘yun kasi 2 percent lang naman ‘yung inakyat ng tariffs ng Philippines, from 17 to 19 percent… Ang malaking bagay talaga ‘yung corruption level, na-trigger niya ‘yung capital flight ng mga foreign investors kasi tinitingnan talaga ng mga namumuhunan ‘yung good governance. Kung mahina ‘yung governance, mate-threaten ‘yung earnings na dapat kikitain nila, or ‘yung kikitain ng mga companies where they are investing in,”

• To fix this, she said that fiscal management must be improved

• “Kailangan talaga ayusin ‘yung fiscal management, ano. Kailangan magtino talaga ‘yung gobyerno kasi hangga’t hindi nararamdaman ng masang Pilipino ‘yung ginagastos ng gobyerno, hindi ‘yan (maganda) para sa consumer confidence,”

• She said that the pillars of the economy are consumer spending, government spending, and investments

• Consumer spending, Guidote said, is presently highly dependent on OFW remittances, an external factor feeding primarily household spending

• “They’re bringing in $32 billion dollars every year, so naco-convert ‘yan,”

• She said that now that the peso has weakened, the conversion rate is higher than ever. However, the higher peso contributes to higher production, affecting inflation

• She cited importations, especially rice grains and oil. She explained that since the peso is weak, importation cost has gone up